We’re in the period before Oscar nominations are announced and after voting is finished, and once again the British Academy has arrived to weigh in with their own picks for the best of the year—and thereby complicate our picture of the race. The group, which shares considerable overlap with the Oscars’ voting body, tend to go their own way and highlight homegrown talent not so much on the US Academy’s radar. But in whittling down their long lists at the same time Oscar ballots are being submitted, the BAFTAs provide key signals of momentum, undetected trend lines, and the overall strength of major contenders. 

This year is no different. Oppenheimer’s leading 13 nominations, including for Christopher Nolan in writing and directing and for most of its core cast, shored up its positioning as an overwhelming front-runner. The best-film lineup (of just five nominees, half the number of films the Oscars consider for best picture) also consists of fellow front-running candidates The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things. Pretty quickly from there, things get more interesting. The top category is rounded out by Anatomy of a Fall, France’s lauded legal thriller which at this point appears unstoppable for a strong performance with Oscar nominations next week. It picked up seven total nods here, a major show of strength, including for directing, acting, and writing. This follows up on its two Golden Globe wins and recognition from the Producers Guild of America, both uncommon achievements for international films. 

Presumably, Justine Triet’s film took the place of Barbie, but that may actually overstate the British Academy’s embrace of Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster. With just five nominations, Barbie may not have been much in the running compared to other movies that had made the BAFTA long list of 10 movies: Maestro, The Zone of Interest, and All of Us Strangers all received more nominations on Thursday, including in directing. Barbie made the cut in the original-screenplay category, a weaker field than adapted screenplay (where it will be required to compete at the Oscars), and both Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling landed on the acting lists—but we can’t even read too much into that, since half of each BAFTA acting category’s nominations roll is determined by small juries, as opposed to the full acting branch. All of that is to say: This is the weakest showing of Barbie to date, awards-wise. Does it mean major Academy snubs are coming? Not necessarily, but expecting an overperformance—like America Ferrera popping as supporting actress or bonus technical nods in cinematography or score—may be a reach at this stage. Further, Gerwig remains vulnerable in the best-director category.

Back to the strangeness of these acting categories for a moment: A lot of major names fell off today—some in especially shocking fashion—in favor of movies well off the Oscar radar, like Rye Lane. While the absence of a front-runner like Lily Gladstone can be partly explained by process quirks, it’s still a big deal she missed in best actress. Why? The top three in every acting race are automatically nominated on a popular vote, and given that Gladstone is considered a front-runner for the win, it’s very worrying she was not already at the front of the pack, let alone that a jury also passed her by. Last year, for instance, BAFTA may have blanked Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale, but all four eventual Oscar acting winners were nominated by the British Academy. Add in Emma Stone overtaking Gladstone at Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards, and this year’s best-actress race appears tighter than previously thought. 

It’s worth noting that Killers of the Flower Moon underperformed generally, with Martin Scorsese missing out for a best-director nomination (not a huge deal since the majority of that field is determined by juries) and the adapted screenplay not fitting into that final five. The latter detail may be the most significant, since screenplay categories are judged in identical fashion to the Oscars, on a popular vote by the Academy’s screenwriting branch. For Killers to miss here—without even having Barbie to contend with, as it will next week—indicates surprising weakness within BAFTA. Whether that translates at all to the Oscars remains to be seen.

In its place, All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest were both nominated for their scripts—and plenty elsewhere. The former, a tearjerker indie from Andrew Haigh, had much to celebrate today with a strong showing in the directing, acting, and screenplay races. But somehow, its best shot for an Oscar nomination, star Andrew Scott, didn’t make the BAFTA best-actor lineup of six. Again, wonkiness between popular vote and juries helps to explain this, but it would have been a crucial boost for the star’s chances next week in a competitive category, in the same way Paul Mescal made it through here last year for Aftersun. (Mescal is nominated this year for All of Us Strangers in the supporting-actor category.)

And as for The Zone of Interest? Following its shocking recognition from the PGA, its sterling showing here should firm up its chances for a best-picture nomination. The real question facing it, as well as Anatomy of a Fall—two international films riding very high—is whether they’ll also be nominated next week for directing and acting, as they were by BAFTA. The acting hopes rest, in both cases, on Sandra Hüller, a groundbreaking double-nominee today (and perhaps soon with the Oscars as well). What a season she’s having.

There are other big hits and misses, little teases of what to expect with Oscar nominations around the corner. It’s important both to not read too much into these fascinating lists and to identify the snubs and surprises that really matter. We won’t know for sure, of course, until bright and early on Tuesday morning. But one thing’s certain—there’s a ton of potential for upsets. 

Check out the full list of BAFTA nominations here.